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Climate System Tipping to Ice-Free Arctic



Abrupt change always surprises people. Why? With climate we expect it now. Change that always happens “faster than expected” can not be good for us. We have stretched our climate to the limit; it is now broken. Like a twig or rubber band that has snapped. We have exceeded resilience limits of the system, and it is now undergoing accelerating, out-of-control change to a much warmer planet, with a warm Arctic and a drunken, meandering, weaker, almost psychotic jet stream. Unguided storms wander around like a wrecking-ball on steroids, wreaking havoc on humans and their stuff…

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Written by lena

Foodie, Performer, Water Protector, Avid Baker, Syndicate Aggregator. I probably still live in my mom's basement.

48 Comments

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  1. Blue-Ocean in the Arctic. Here we come; it is just a matter of a few years. Russia and USA think it will benefit them economically. I don’t think so. They better rethink.

    I’ll let you know what we can expect, and when. Please keep my videos going with a bit of support at http://paulbeckwith.net since I have bills to pay and places to go:)

  2. Yeah, the snow could be a negative feedback. The question is, is the larger snow falls a fluke this year, or can it be expected to become normal? The disruption of the jet Stream can send more moisture in the arctic, thus more snow. Then the snow increases the thickness, is very reflective, which keeps the ice area cooler, thus even increasing the temperature difference with medium latitude, and reducing the jet stream disruption.

    Ice volume is high now and extent melting rate is low these days. Within a few days, we'll be above many previous years at that rate. With the extra thickness plus the extra reflectivity of the snow, it doesn't bode well to end up very low this year.

  3. American orator Al Gore once tried to make Mount Kilimanjaro in tropical Africa an icon for melting ice. A more polar icon would be more representative of melting ice, since most of the world's ice is found within the Arctic and Antarctic Circles. The Norwegian island of Spitsbergen, the main island of the Svalbard Archipelago about 700 nautical miles from the North Pole, is well within the Arctic Circle, and is therefore much more representative of what is going on in the Arctic Ocean than Mount Kilimanjaro.

    One interesting aspect of the Arctic island of Spitsbergen is that by the American definition of growing season the lower altitude regions of the island can now experience a growing season of more than 60 days. Weather statistics are available for the town of Longyearbyen on Spitsbergen Island. See https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html "Weather statistics for Longyearbyen (Svalbard). Apparently if using the American definition of growing season, the growing season began this year in Longyearbyen on June 13, 2018. If the daily low temperatures in Longyearbyen fall no lower than 0 degrees Celsius until August 11, 2018, then by the American definition of growing season, Longyearbyen will have had a 60 day growing season.

    In practice, the American definition of growing season is incorrect, as evidenced by experiments in which short season crops such as carrots and potatoes failed to be harvestable in Spitsbergen. As a more practical requirement for a growing season to be in effect, after the beginning of Summer, the low should fall to no lower than +1 Celsius, and before the beginning of Summer the lower soil temperatures require the low to be no less than +2 degrees Celsius. Also, it is believed that plants will not experience rapid growth in times of the year when there is less than 9 hours between sunrise and sunset, regardless of temperature.

    However, the American definition has the advantage of simplicity, and proves the point that it is no longer true that it is always cold within the Arctic Circle. It would lead to interesting and useful debate if later in the year an American reporter wrote a news article declaring that the growing season in Longyearbyen in 2018 had exceeded 60 days.

  4. It' been reported that many of us, even some climate scientists/teachers, don't truly understand this mechanism
    The 5 videos below explain how global warming (related to climate change) works in as few as 52 seconds. Even our most chemistry-rich video is less than 5 minutes long.
    Please click on the version you want to watch.
    http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

  5. The scary thing is how is this going to affect food production. Living in the US, an highly armed society, unable to feed its citizens is an horror I don't want to live through.

  6. All I have to say is enjoy the good time while it lasts, we are all F*cked except the Elite who will only persist a little bit longer than the masses. It's been fun.

  7. Healthy Climate Alliance wants to geoengineer Mother Earth in a futile attempt to save humans from themselves. Say NO to the co-opting of "Healthy" and tell geoengineer Paul Beckwith you do NOT consent!

  8. Thank you Paul you are such a nice fellow. If we could ever begin to reverse so much of the damage we have brought about I am sure you will be here educating us and trying to make a better world.

  9. Climate reanalyzer and Arctic Sea Ice Graphs are among the best info sites on this topic.. thanks to Paul for directing these sites to the collection.. Bravo Paul!

  10. Cooling of the tropics has more of an effect than heating of the Arctic(latest information about the Milankovitch cycle). The Arctic isn't even above normal temperature and has been below normal until today when it hit the 1958-2002 average.

  11. Paul….can you please put links in your discription/synopsis with the various sites you use….love you thx.

  12. It's too late to fix the damage we've done. We are facing an existential threat. Our civilization is beyond saving. We must terminate all greenhouse gas-releasing economic activity immediately. The longer we wait, the lesser our chances of saving ourselves from extinction.

  13. Blue water event is only the tip of the ice-berg. AMOC will be just a little creek . So much will happen that Guy will almost be right, It will take less than a century to get us to a steady state and mans world will end.

  14. This must be the reason why we're having snow storms in June. What are the actual temperatures in those warmer areas? Is this really surprising at the solstice?

  15. How warm is warm? Warm and cold, it is the contrast that tells the tale. Melting ice generates cold water flow. Cold water moves warmer water. Warming water circulates primarily on the oceans surfaces and leads to warmer atmospheric temperatures…The result is a temporary warming in most places (aside from the depths of the ocean) where colder water eventually sinks along its way. The warming is temporary because it leads to more water vapor and clouds. The earth's clouds have, by far, the greatest albedo effect (Hawaii is actually cooling form the volcanic plume and they have had snow and ice) which cools the earth by reflecting sunlight back out into space…. At such time as the increased albedo begins to offset the increased warming the trend reverses QUICKLY and EXPONENTIALLY! When the cooling starts, in earnest, its gonna hurt folks! The Thames will freeze over in a hurry! Continued –

    The increased clouds not only serve to cool the earth through the albedo effect but more precipitation will lead to more winter snow and ice (this is already happening in antarctica and explains a net gain of ice on land). Snow and ice also happen to increase the albedo effect so that the world wide cooling accelerates. This is the same process that in the past led to an Ice Ball Earth when it was just very warm and there was tropics at either pole. It is happening again! it is called cyclical! Now class. Class! CLAAAASSSS! Wake up! Thank You.

    Ain't is strange how warming leads to cooling? And yes, the opposite is true. Cooling does lead to warming but that is a class for another day. You are welcome.

    Disclaimer, the sun is now, always has been and always will be the primary driver of our climate. We are entering a grand solar minimum which means less solar activity and more volcanoes. .

  16. Paul, what exactly the underlying point here? Globe is still warming? If so, what are the causes and what we can do about it? When did the mankind had a stable climate?

  17. Paul, there is no ice free Arctic. They have been saying that for decades. Thee isn't enough time or energy to make that happen this year. Better start doing some science instead of this fear mongering your so good at.

  18. Has this guy heard of HAARP chemtrails geoengineering and EMF weapons and biogenetics effects all scientists engineers academics exist in ivory towers rent paid by power and corruption. Eero

  19. Please leave links to the sights you quote. Have you ever heard of the Danish Meteorological Institute? They keep pretty good track of the Arctic,  you might want to check their sight for real facts.

  20. its kind of mind blowing to consider how far back we have to go to find our society's fundanental error, given that there has been nearly zero political will to confront this problem. everything we did since subsistence farming is suspect.

  21. No government web site can mention this sudden atmospheric change. Last year Trump had every climate change info removed from USA govt. Of course all the other governments and science institutions are alarmed. This has been going on all last year. Trump has no rule over private info. Just things like NASA which is now defying him and showing the world the methane volcanos exploding from arctic as spring ice melts faster than ever on record in all history.

  22. Hey there Paul! Greetings from Florida! Was wondering if you could do a video with a list of each issue (ie, the jets, amoc.) and their influence on things like pattern setups that effect weather. A sort of heres the bottom line video that i can use to convince my family. We live in a very precarious place when talking climo change 😅 food for thought. Thank you for all your hard work Paul!

  23. The sides of the north are thawing out. For those with eyes to see will know what that means. For the rest, you are on your own now to find the truth.

  24. Do your research and dont just listen to this. We are heading into a grand solar minimum. We are going to get much colder. In fact both Antarctica and the arctic are gaining ice at a very fast clip. And when this guy talks about "warmer than normal " that doesn't mean its above freezing. Check it out for yourself… dont be a sheep.

  25. Paul, it will be very interesting and probably very alarming when September 2018 comes. The previous Glory of the jet stream is history. X

  26. So many clowns here… better pull your heads out and find out what the real ice pack numbers are. The world really is going into the GSM.

  27. Ph.D. Committee: Which cloud is natural and which is man made?

    Ph.D. Candidate: I can’t tell.

    Ph.D. Committee: Congratulations you’re now a climate change scientist.

  28. If you think that there is hope for the survival of the human habitat consider the words of Richard Dawkins – "Most Americans think global warming will harm Americans. But they don’t think they themselves will be harmed". That kinda sums up the state that the US is in right now.

  29. Guy Mcpherson is convinced the Blue Ocean Event will happen no later then next year leading to loss of habitat for all human's i.e. no food!

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